85% of Retail Investors Now Prefer Grocery-Anchored NNN Centers — Here’s What the Data Says About Where to Buy in 2026

Grocery-anchored NNN centers have crossed a threshold that most institutional investors track carefully:
CBRE’s 2026 North American Investor Intentions Survey found that 85% of retail investors favored grocery-anchored centers, making them the most preferred retail format by a wide margin.
That’s not a soft sentiment reading — it’s capital allocation signaling.
MSCI reports that investment volume totaled $12.8 billion over the most recent rolling four-quarter period, its largest such total since 2022.
For investors evaluating where to deploy equity in net lease this year, the data is pointing in one clear direction.

Why Grocery-Anchored NNN Centers Lead Every Retail Asset Class in 2026

Grocery-anchored NNN centers outperform other retail formats on virtually every metric that institutional underwriters care about: vacancy, rent premiums, foot traffic stability, and investor demand. The structural advantage is rooted in a simple but durable truth — people buy food every week regardless of economic conditions.

The vacancy rate for grocery-anchored properties sits at just 4.0%, compared to 6.3% for non-anchored centers. That advantage translates directly into pricing power, with grocery-anchored centers commanding an NNN rent premium of 4.4%.
For landlords managing multi-tenant centers, that rent differential compounds across every in-line space adjacent to the anchor pad.

The foot traffic story is equally compelling.
ICSC has found that grocery-anchored retail centers attract approximately three times as many customers annually as unanchored centers in comparable trade areas — translating to roughly a 200% increase in foot traffic — and allow owners to command 15% to 25% higher rents for adjacent in-line spaces.

CBRE’s H2 2025 Cap Rate Survey found that grocery-anchored centers have the best expected investment performance of all retail asset types.
When the largest commercial real estate data platform ranks a single format at the top of the cap-rate-performance matrix, yield-seeking investors take notice.

Grocery-Anchored NNN Transaction Volume: The 2025-2026 Capital Surge in Detail

The transaction volume data is the clearest evidence of where institutional conviction sits.
Grocery-anchored transaction volume grew to $11 billion last year, a 42% increase from $7 billion the year prior, according to JLL.
That kind of year-over-year acceleration doesn’t happen in a sector where buyers are uncertain — it happens when fundamentals and pricing are both aligned.

Acquisitions are increasingly going to institutional investors, with that pool of buyers reaching 27% last year, their highest share in more than a decade, according to JLL.
The shift signals that family offices and private 1031 buyers — historically the dominant force in grocery-anchored net lease — are now competing with balance-sheet capital from REITs and private equity firms for the same product.

The marquee capital commitments speak for themselves:

• Bain Capital Real Estate and 11North raised $1.6 billion for their joint venture targeting high-quality and value-add grocery-anchored retail, with additional funding from Bain Capital Real Estate Fund III taking total available investable equity above $2 billion.
• Nuveen raised $330 million for its open-ended U.S. Cities Retail Fund, which targets necessity-based, grocery-anchored retail properties in affluent areas; the fund has more than $8 billion in assets under management, with a $250 million anchor commitment from a global pension fund.
• JLL Capital Markets facilitated the $115 million sale of The East Coast Grocery Portfolio in April 2026, a seven-property collection anchored by Publix, Kroger, and Stop & Shop, featuring average grocer sales performance exceeding $700 per square foot across 558,000 square feet and aggregate occupancy of 99.6%.

For private investors and 1031 exchange buyers looking to view available NNN deals, the institutional volume data sets a clear floor on quality standards — and confirms that well-located grocery-anchored centers will attract competitive bidding.

The Anchor Banner Matters More Than Ever for Grocery-Anchored NNN Investing

Not all grocery anchors are created equal in 2026. The foot traffic bifurcation now running through the industry is the single most important underwriting variable for new acquisitions.
Ongoing food price inflation, financial pressure on middle-income families, and shifting shopper priorities are separating the grocery winners from the rest of the pack. Increasingly, the success of a grocery-anchored property depends not just on having an anchor, but on having the right kind of anchor for today’s market.

Value-Format Grocers: Aldi Leads the Expansion Wave

Aldi alone opened 180 new stores in 2025 and plans another 180 in 2026 as part of an aggressive multi-year expansion.

Aldi is now the third-largest grocer in the country by store count, trailing only Walmart and Kroger.
For NNN investors, Aldi’s expansion creates direct deal flow in suburban and secondary markets where the brand is entering new trade areas — often at above-market rent for the center’s surrounding in-line tenants due to the traffic Aldi’s model generates.

Fresh-Format Grocers: Premium Traffic, Premium Rents

At the other end of the barbell, fresh-format operators are delivering the strongest same-store traffic gains in the sector.
Trader Joe’s posted a remarkable 10.4% same-store visit gain, Whole Foods grew 9.8%, and Aldi expanded 8.3%.

Fresh-format grocers like Whole Foods and Sprouts each plan to open between 25 and 40 new locations in 2026.
Centers anchored by these banners in affluent infill trade areas consistently attract the tightest cap rates in the sector.

Mass Merchants and Wholesale Clubs

BJ’s and Target both plan to open 30 new stores in 2026, while Walmart plans to expand across the Sun Belt with 12 to 15 new locations, mainly in Florida and Texas.

Mass merchants and wholesale clubs like Walmart and Costco reported same-store sales increases of between 5% and 6%, driven by more grocery offerings.
NNN outparcel opportunities adjacent to these large-format anchors remain some of the most durable income plays in the market.

Grocery-Anchored NNN Centers: How Supply Constraints Are Driving Cap Rate Stability

Grocery-anchored NNN centers benefit from a structural supply problem that works entirely in the landlord’s favor.
Availability has compressed to just 4.7%, and leasing velocity has slowed as quality space becomes scarce.
When tenant demand stays firm but new supply can’t materialize — due to construction costs, entitlement timelines, and anchor lease requirements — existing centers command sustained pricing power.

The macro net lease data reinforces this picture.
Single-tenant net lease property supply declined 9.8% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026, driven by elevated transaction volume in Q4 2025 and continued deal activity in the first quarter, with retail bid-ask spreads narrowing to 23 basis points, according to The Boulder Group.
Narrowing spreads at a time of declining supply is a textbook setup for further cap rate compression on the highest-quality assets.

The net lease market remains bifurcated between investment-grade credit assets with long lease terms — which continue to attract institutional buyers, 1031 exchange capital, and private investors — while transaction volume is expected to remain steady through 2026 as buyer and seller pricing expectations continue to converge.

For NNN investors in Sun Belt markets, the supply-demand dynamics are especially compelling.
Traditional, specialty, and superstore grocers are expected to drive Dallas-Fort Worth to a record retail occupancy rate in 2026. More than 82% of the 2.4 million square feet of new retail space built in 2025 in that market was for grocers like H-E-B, Kroger, Sprouts, and Walmart.

Occupancy at grocer-anchored community shopping centers in the DFW metro remained at a record high of 96.4% in 2025.

How to Underwrite a Grocery-Anchored NNN Center in 2026

Buying a grocery-anchored NNN center today means underwriting the anchor banner, the inline tenant mix, the trade area demographics, and the lease structure simultaneously. Property selection, tenant credit, lease term, and cash flow trajectory are the four variables that determine whether an asset trades at a premium or requires pricing concessions — and the spread between best-in-class and average is widening.

A disciplined framework should evaluate the following:

• Anchor banner traffic trends: Use third-party foot traffic data (Placer.ai, CoStar) to verify that your anchor is gaining, not losing, visits. A 10%+ YoY traffic gain from the anchor is the target benchmark.
• Anchor sales per square foot:
  In the East Coast Grocery Portfolio transaction, average grocer sales performance exceeded $700 per square foot
  — a strong benchmark for top-performing Publix and Kroger locations.
• Tenant credit and lease guaranty:
  Investors and lenders tend to prefer centers with national grocery brands. These centers are favored in securing debt, while properties backed by local or regional grocers often face stricter scrutiny.
• In-line occupancy and rent escalations: Anchor-driven traffic should be converting into high occupancy across the inline bays. Look for rent bumps of 10% every 5 years or CPI-linked escalators as a minimum standard.
• Demographics and barriers to entry:
  The Bain/11North Florida-South Carolina portfolio was specifically chosen for its locations in affluent trade areas, including an average household income of $101,152 within a three-mile radius
  — a level of demographic selectivity increasingly standard among institutional buyers.
• Remaining lease term on the anchor: Anchor leases with 10+ years of term remaining provide the strongest pricing support and the deepest buyer pool at resale.

Investors who want to read more NNN analysis on the Triple Net Direct blog will find deep-dives on lease structure, credit rating frameworks, and regional market comparisons that complement this underwriting approach.

1031 Exchange Buyers: Why Grocery-Anchored NNN Centers Are the Ideal Replacement Property

For investors completing a 1031 exchange under a 45-day identification window, grocery-anchored NNN centers check every box that matters: passive income, long-term leases, institutional-grade tenants, and a proven track record through economic cycles.

The sector’s resilience through economic shocks has been remarkable. During COVID, while net absorption turned negative for four consecutive quarters and new deliveries plummeted 68%, rents still grew 1.5%.
That kind of downside protection — demonstrated through the most severe retail shock in a generation — is exactly what 1031 buyers need in a replacement property.

U.S. grocery spending hit nearly $1 trillion in 2025, driving demand for new stores and foot traffic.
The investable universe behind that spending figure is enormous, and the pipeline of new anchor openings — from Aldi’s 180-store 2026 campaign to Whole Foods’ 25–40 new locations — creates fresh deal flow for buyers who move decisively. Connect with a specialist advisor to identify grocery-anchored NNN inventory that aligns with your exchange timeline and equity size.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a grocery-anchored NNN center?

A grocery-anchored NNN center is a multi-tenant retail property where a supermarket or discount grocer occupies the largest space — the “anchor pad” — and in-line tenants sign NNN leases making them responsible for taxes, insurance, and maintenance. The grocery anchor drives regular foot traffic that supports surrounding tenants and stabilizes the center’s occupancy and rent rolls.

What cap rates should I expect for grocery-anchored NNN centers in 2026?

Cap rates for grocery-anchored NNN centers vary by anchor quality, location, and lease term. CBRE’s H2 2025 Cap Rate Survey ranked grocery-anchored centers as having the best expected investment performance of all retail asset types. Top-tier assets anchored by Publix, Whole Foods, or Trader Joe’s in affluent infill markets trade at the tightest yields, while secondary-market properties with regional grocery anchors price wider. Retail bid-ask spreads have narrowed to roughly 23 basis points as of Q1 2026, signaling greater pricing consensus.

Which grocery anchor tenants are the strongest for NNN investing?

In 2026, Aldi, Trader Joe’s, Whole Foods, and Sprouts are generating the strongest foot traffic growth. National credit chains like Publix, Kroger, and Walmart remain the most widely accepted by lenders and institutional buyers. Properties backed by national grocery brands consistently secure more favorable financing terms than those anchored by local or regional operators.

Can I use a 1031 exchange to buy a grocery-anchored NNN center?

Yes. Grocery-anchored NNN centers are among the most popular replacement property categories for 1031 exchange investors. They offer long lease terms, creditworthy tenants, and passive income structures that satisfy the “like-kind” exchange requirement. The 45-day identification window favors buyers who pre-identify target assets and work with net lease advisors before closing the relinquished property.

How does the supply of grocery-anchored NNN centers affect pricing?

Supply is tightening. Availability across grocery-anchored properties has compressed to just 4.7%, and single-tenant net lease inventory fell 9.8% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026. Constrained new construction, high entitlement costs, and anchor lease requirements make it nearly impossible to replicate quality centers. Scarcity at the top of the market supports firm pricing and cap rate stability for best-in-class assets.

Are grocery-anchored NNN centers recession-resistant?

Historical data strongly supports their resilience. During COVID, rents in grocery-anchored centers still grew 1.5% even as net absorption turned negative for four consecutive quarters and new deliveries fell 68%. During the Great Recession, vacancy in grocery-anchored centers rose only modestly versus the broader retail market. Food is a non-discretionary category, and anchors that serve value-conscious shoppers have proven especially durable across cycles.

Bottom Line

The data is unusually consistent: grocery-anchored NNN centers are the preferred retail investment format in 2026, backed by $12.8 billion in rolling annual transaction volume, 4.0% vacancy, and an 85% investor preference rate in CBRE’s latest survey. The best opportunities are concentrated in centers anchored by high-growth banners — Aldi, Trader Joe’s, Whole Foods, and Publix — in demographically strong trade areas with barriers to new supply. With inventory tightening and institutional capital competing aggressively for top assets, waiting is the most expensive position you can take. Browse current listings on Triple Net Direct to see what’s available now.

Sources

• Grocery Tracker 2026: Who’s Winning the Aisle Wars — JLL
• Grocers Adding More Stores to Meet Rising Consumer Demand — CBRE
• Nuveen Raises $330M For U.S. Grocery-Anchored Retail Fund — Bisnow
• Bain, 11North Raise $1.6B To Go On A Grocery-Anchored Shopping Spree — Bisnow
• Seven-Property Grocery-Anchored Portfolio Trades Hands for $115M — JLL
• Q1 2026 Net Lease Research Report — The Boulder Group
• Weitzman: Grocery-Anchored Retail To Drive DFW’s Fourth Year Of Record Occupancy — Bisnow
• Aldi to Open 180 U.S. Stores in 2026 as Shoppers Seek Value — CNBC
• Grocery-Anchored Retail Earns Spotlight as National Chains Attract Most Investors — GlobeSt